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Cheap Valuations, Weaker Euro Could Boost European Equities
Despite the poor recent performance of European equities since May the Dax index, dropped nearly 10 percent from high to low recently now is could be the time for Europe to shine. European equities affected by Russias invasion in Ukraine While poor performance in May is mainly attributed to Russias invasion of Eastern Ukraine, the main cause could be more fundamental and could be reaching a turning point, if history is any guide. Negative data surprises in the region have reached an extreme and could revert back to the statistical norm, which would help stocks, the report noted. The Euro weakening in light of anticipated quantitative easing in the region should help European equities. European earnings growth cut While view Barclays cut their forecast for earnings growth in the region to 10 percent, on a going forward basis growth should increase by 70 percent in 2015, the bank estimates, noting that both their forecasts are slightly above bottom-up consensus estimates. Our own modelling work suggests that both revenues and earnings growth should accelerate, the report noted, as the bank took a more aggressive stance on growth in the region than its peers. Barclays advises those who, like the bank, are taking an un-hedged approach to equity investing: The question then becomes whether the performance of European equities would be sufficient to outweigh any further currency weakness. US stock market declining Projecting into the future, Barclays sees the US stock market declining 1 percent into the end of 2014, with European markets (minus the UK) up by nearly 13 percent, the same rise the bank forecasts for emerging markets. The UK stock market is projected to rise 6 percent. Japan is expected to rise 8 percent going into the year end, while the Pacific region ex Japan is anticipated to rise only 4 percent. Economic surprises appear to have reached a negative extreme, earnings estimates finally look as if they are on the upturn, while the prospect of further monetary easing by the ECB could add a further fillip. http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/09/valuations-european-equities/
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